Signal Backtests
How Orrery's price-based signals performed historically, replayed on the top 15 markets by volume. Transparent methodology, no cherry-picking.
History
1M CLOB
Universe
Top 15
Cooldown
1h
Cost model
-2pp
Orrery replays the same live rules minute by minute, then measures 1h, 6h, and 24h follow-through. Flow and resolution-risk need event-time history, so they are excluded for now.
Momentum
372 firings across 6 marketsPrice + 1h direction + 24h direction all aligned, with ≥3pp 24h move. Expected to continue in the same direction.
Expected · 24h, after spread
-6.49pp
raw avg − 2pp typical spread
Median · 24h
-0.18pp
robust to outliers
Win rate · 24h
46%
334 measured
Raw avg · 24h
-4.49pp
before spread / fees
Average move by horizon
- 1h+0.16pp
- 6h+0.15pp
- 24h-4.49pp
Centred at zero. Bar length is proportional to the largest of the three windows, so the decay shape is visible without re-scaling.
By category (3 categories fired)
| Category | Firings | Measured | Win 24h | Avg 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitics | 237 | 223 | 43% | -6.64pp |
| Politics | 132 | 108 | 55% | -0.65pp |
| Sports | 3 | 3 | — | -3.17pp |
Win rate hidden until ≥10 measured firings — thin samples can flip with one outlier.
Per-market breakdown (6 markets fired)
| Market | Firings | Win 24h | Avg 1h | Avg 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | 113 | 36% | +0.45pp | -10.48pp |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | 106 | 48% | -0.58pp | -2.72pp |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | 81 | 57% | +0.01pp | -0.57pp |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | 51 | 51% | -0.43pp | -0.77pp |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | 18 | 56% | +5.17pp | -5.69pp |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | 3 | 0% | -1.17pp | -3.17pp |
Divergence
203 firings across 6 markets1h move running against the 24h trend. Expected to continue short-term in the 1h direction before 24h reasserts.
Expected · 24h, after spread
+0.81pp
raw avg − 2pp typical spread
Median · 24h
+0.00pp
robust to outliers
Win rate · 24h
47%
192 measured
Raw avg · 24h
+2.81pp
before spread / fees
Average move by horizon
- 1h+0.64pp
- 6h+2.29pp
- 24h+2.81pp
Centred at zero. Bar length is proportional to the largest of the three windows, so the decay shape is visible without re-scaling.
By category (3 categories fired)
| Category | Firings | Measured | Win 24h | Avg 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geopolitics | 142 | 141 | 53% | +4.66pp |
| Politics | 54 | 44 | 27% | -1.81pp |
| Sports | 7 | 7 | — | +0.86pp |
Win rate hidden until ≥10 measured firings — thin samples can flip with one outlier.
Per-market breakdown (6 markets fired)
| Market | Firings | Win 24h | Avg 1h | Avg 24h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | 69 | 40% | -0.50pp | +0.13pp |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | 67 | 66% | +0.76pp | +8.22pp |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | 30 | 27% | +1.80pp | -2.48pp |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | 24 | 28% | +2.05pp | -0.96pp |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | 7 | 43% | +1.29pp | +0.86pp |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | 6 | 67% | +0.36pp | +16.87pp |
Honest caveats
- Small samples. CLOB returns ~30 days of minute-level history; short-dated markets may have very few firings. Anything below 10 measured firings shows a dash instead of a win rate so we don't overstate confidence.
- Survivorship. This backtest runs on markets currently live — not on markets that already resolved and disappeared. Persistent historical coverage is planned so the full universe can be evaluated once enough live history has accumulated.
- No execution costs. Avg-move figures are mid-price to mid-price. Real entry/exit would pay spread, slippage, and Polymarket fees — so a +1.5pp 24h move is not +1.5pp of profit.
- Signal drift. If we tune the live rule, these numbers change with it. That's the point — the page always reflects the rule that's currently running, not a frozen historical version.