Backtests

Signal Backtests

How Orrery's price-based signals performed historically, replayed on the top 15 markets by volume. Transparent methodology, no cherry-picking.

top 15

History

1M CLOB

Universe

Top 15

Cooldown

1h

Cost model

-2pp

Orrery replays the same live rules minute by minute, then measures 1h, 6h, and 24h follow-through. Flow and resolution-risk need event-time history, so they are excluded for now.

updated 02:07:11 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB

Momentum

328 firings across 6 markets

Price + 1h direction + 24h direction all aligned, with ≥3pp 24h move. Expected to continue in the same direction.

VerdictWeakSampleMedium304 firings · 6 marketsHistorically negative after spread — treat as research, not a profitable signal.

Expected · 24h, after spread

-3.58pp

raw avg − 2pp typical spread

Median · 24h

+0.00pp

robust to outliers

Win rate · 24h

46%

304 measured

Raw avg · 24h

-1.58pp

before spread / fees

Average move by horizon

  • 1h
    -0.05pp
  • 6h
    +0.03pp
  • 24h
    -1.58pp

Centred at zero. Bar length is proportional to the largest of the three windows, so the decay shape is visible without re-scaling.

By category (3 categories fired)
CategoryFiringsMeasuredWin 24hAvg 24h
Geopolitics19218740%-2.64pp
Politics13211457%+0.02pp
Sports43-3.17pp

Win rate hidden until ≥10 measured firings — thin samples can flip with one outlier.

Per-market breakdown (6 markets fired)

Divergence

188 firings across 6 markets

1h move running against the 24h trend. Expected to continue short-term in the 1h direction before 24h reasserts.

VerdictWeakSampleMedium175 firings · 6 marketsHistorically negative after spread — treat as research, not a profitable signal.

Expected · 24h, after spread

-1.72pp

raw avg − 2pp typical spread

Median · 24h

-0.50pp

robust to outliers

Win rate · 24h

38%

175 measured

Raw avg · 24h

+0.28pp

before spread / fees

Average move by horizon

  • 1h
    +0.58pp
  • 6h
    +0.93pp
  • 24h
    +0.28pp

Centred at zero. Bar length is proportional to the largest of the three windows, so the decay shape is visible without re-scaling.

By category (3 categories fired)
CategoryFiringsMeasuredWin 24hAvg 24h
Geopolitics12312243%+1.51pp
Politics584626%-2.38pp
Sports77+0.86pp

Win rate hidden until ≥10 measured firings — thin samples can flip with one outlier.

Per-market breakdown (6 markets fired)

Honest caveats

  • Small samples. CLOB returns ~30 days of minute-level history; short-dated markets may have very few firings. Anything below 10 measured firings shows a dash instead of a win rate so we don't overstate confidence.
  • Survivorship. This backtest runs on markets currently live — not on markets that already resolved and disappeared. Persistent historical coverage is planned so the full universe can be evaluated once enough live history has accumulated.
  • No execution costs. Avg-move figures are mid-price to mid-price. Real entry/exit would pay spread, slippage, and Polymarket fees — so a +1.5pp 24h move is not +1.5pp of profit.
  • Signal drift. If we tune the live rule, these numbers change with it. That's the point — the page always reflects the rule that's currently running, not a frozen historical version.