Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Boston Breach - Game 4 Winner
Probability
10¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-40.5pp
24h Vol
$10.00
Liquidity
$707.48
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 31, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (19.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 41pp over 24h
Now 10¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 3h. UMA disputed and spread is extremely wide.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 19.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 3 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 31, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (19.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 04:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 3.2h
- 00:48SignalHIGH
Resolution risk
Expires in 3h. UMA disputed and spread is extremely wide.
Price movement
-40.5pp over the last 24h, now 10¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
5- 6¢-4.5
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?
Other · Vol $904.5K
- 0¢-16.6
Will David Brekalo win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?
Other · Vol $387.9K
- 1¢-11.1
Will Jakob Glesnes win 2026 MLS Defender of the Year?
Other · Vol $347.0K
- 2¢+1.5
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30?
Other · Vol $261.3K
Market Description
This market refers to the Call of Duty match between Vancouver Surge and Boston Breach in the Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier, initially scheduled for May 30 at 6:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Vancouver Surge" if Vancouver Surge win Game 4 against Boston Breach. This market will resolve to "Boston Breach" if Boston Breach win Game 4 against Vancouver Surge. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 4 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 4. If Game 4 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://liquipedia.net/callofduty/Main_Page. However, if https://liquipedia.net/callofduty/Main_Page has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Boston Breach - Game 4 Winner"?
As of Sun, 31 May 2026 00:48:28 GMT, YES is priced at 10% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -40.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T04:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://liquipedia.net/callofduty/Main_Page.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://liquipedia.net/callofduty/Main_Page. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$10.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $10.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $707.48. Spread between best bid and best ask: 19.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.