Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 4?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+26.5pp
24h Vol
$40.00
Liquidity
$96.5K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 23, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 23, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+50.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 26pp over 24h
Now 100¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 23, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 23, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 23:30SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 21:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 3h ago; awaiting UMA confirmation
Price movement
+26.5pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Biggest hourly move: +50.0pp at 23:00 (to 100¢).
Show top 8 of 17 hourly moves
- 23:00 · +50.0pp → 100¢
- 22:00 · +40.0pp → 90¢
- 20:00 · +40.0pp → 90¢
- 07:00 · +23.5pp → 74¢
- 06:00 · +23.5pp → 74¢
- 01:00 · +23.5pp → 74¢
- May 22, 21:00 UTC · +23.5pp → 74¢
- May 22, 19:00 UTC · +23.5pp → 74¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the upcoming Upper bracket semifinal 2 match between Karmine Corp and G2 Esports in the LEC Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 24 at 11:00AM ET: This market is about the total kills in Game 4. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total kills in Game 4 is 29 or more. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under". If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 begins but is not completed, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 4 is remade, resolution will be based on the total kills in the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
SportsReason
No rule fired; using Polymarket's own category hint "Sports".
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 4?"?
As of Sat, 23 May 2026 23:30:45 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +26.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +50.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 23, 2026 (2026-05-23T21:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://gol.gg/esports/home.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$40.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $40.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $96.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.