What prediction markets just learned
A recurring digest of what moved on Polymarket — biggest probability swings, whale calls, signal-stacked candidates, disputed resolutions, and crowded markets. Public data, never trade calls. Refreshed every 30 minutes.
Agent API receipts
public formatSnapshot
source + timestamp
Every public receipt should say which snapshot and source window the agent relied on.
Interpretation
why + risk
The useful artifact is the explanation: what moved, why it matters, and what to verify.
Safety
not trade advice
Receipts stay research-only. They do not expose private telemetry or recommend positions.
Internal usage and revenue counters are private operator telemetry. Public receipts show the intelligence artifact and source context, not Orrery's raw business counters.
Biggest moves · 24h
5Largest probability swings on liquid live-research markets. Pinned-at-extreme markets are excluded — those are settlement queues, not fresh signal.
- 1
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?
GeopoliticsVol $199.1K · Liq $21.1K12¢
-7.0 - 2
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
GeopoliticsVol $1.3M · Liq $877.1K2¢
-4.2 - 3
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
GeopoliticsVol $307.4K · Liq $261.4K26¢
-4.0 - 4
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?
CryptoVol $278.9K · Liq $89.4K13¢
+3.5 - 5
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
GeopoliticsVol $327.5K · Liq $781.4K46¢
-3.0
Top large-trade receipts · last 24h
0Largest single trades by USD. Big size doesn't equal smart money — but it's where attention concentrates.
Quiet large-trade window. The feed picks up trades ≥ $25k.
Loudest observations
1Markets where momentum / flow / divergence stacked, ranked by observation confidence. Action is always 'watch' — never a trade call.
Most disputed resolutions
1Markets with active UMA dispute or pending oracle votes. Verify the source before treating moves as fresh information.
Most crowded markets
5Biggest turnover (24h volume / liquidity) on a tight spread. Heavy attention, real fills.
- 1
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
GeopoliticsVol $194.8K · Liq $50.8K · spread 1.0¢3.8×
- 2
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?
CryptoVol $278.9K · Liq $89.4K · spread 0.1¢3.1×
- 3
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
SportsVol $236.9K · Liq $81.9K · spread 0.1¢2.9×
- 4
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
GeopoliticsVol $200.1K · Liq $116.2K · spread 1.0¢1.7×
- 5
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
GeopoliticsVol $1.3M · Liq $877.1K · spread 0.1¢1.5×
How to read this page
- Not trade calls. Receipts describe what happened, not what to do next. Action is always watch / verify / compare.
- Refreshed every 30 minutes from public Polymarket data. Once Orrery has a persistent snapshot store we'll add a
/receipts/[date]archive for week-by-week comparison. - Honest about misses. Disputed resolutions + signal stacks that didn't pay off get the same prime real estate as the wins.