What prediction markets just learned
A recurring digest of what moved on Polymarket — biggest probability swings, whale calls, signal-stacked candidates, disputed resolutions, and crowded markets. Public data, never trade calls. Refreshed every 30 minutes.
Agent API receipts
KV backedx402 attempts
408
402 challenges
408
Settled calls
0
Settled USDC
0.000
| Endpoint | Calls | 402 | Settled | Revenue | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| /api/x402/v1/events | 75 | 75 | 0 | 0.000 | May 18, 01:24 UTC |
| /api/x402/v1/brief/today | 20 | 20 | 0 | 0.000 | May 18, 05:16 UTC |
| /api/x402/v1/signals/{kind} | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0.000 | May 18, 01:21 UTC |
| /api/x402/v1/backtest/{kind} | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0.000 | May 18, 01:21 UTC |
| /api/x402/v1/category/{slug}/intelligence | 17 | 17 | 0 | 0.000 | May 18, 01:21 UTC |
Biggest moves · 24h
5Largest probability swings on liquid live-research markets. Pinned-at-extreme markets are excluded — those are settlement queues, not fresh signal.
- 1
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
GeopoliticsVol $322.7K · Liq $53.4K30¢
+10.0 - 2
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?
CryptoVol $252.5K · Liq $136.6K13¢
-4.0 - 3
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?
MacroVol $182.0K · Liq $50.0K63¢
+4.0 - 4
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
PoliticsVol $179.3K · Liq $87.3K64¢
-2.5 - 5
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?
SportsVol $529.6K · Liq $701.4K4¢
+2.0
Top whale calls · last 24h
0Largest single trades by USD. Big size doesn't equal smart money — but it's where attention concentrates.
Quiet whale window. The feed picks up trades ≥ $25k.
Loudest observations
3Markets where momentum / flow / divergence stacked, ranked by observation confidence. Action is always 'watch' — never a trade call.
- 1
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?
momentumProbability moved up 4.0pp in 24h with 3.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.74/100
- 2
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?
momentumProbability moved down 4.0pp in 24h with 1.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.72/100
- 3
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
divergencePrice is moving against its 24h trend — 1h -1.5pp vs. 24h +10.0pp.55/100
Most disputed resolutions
5Markets with active UMA dispute or pending oracle votes. Verify the source before treating moves as fresh information.
- 1
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?
PoliticsUMA disputedVol $4.2M · expires May 15100¢
- 2
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?
GeopoliticsUMA disputedVol $2.0M · expires May 151¢
- 3
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?
GeopoliticsUMA disputedVol $886.1K · expires May 151¢
- 4
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?
ScienceUMA disputedVol $865.1K · expires Dec 31100¢
- 5
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?
GeopoliticsUMA disputedVol $563.6K · expires May 151¢
Most crowded markets
5Biggest turnover (24h volume / liquidity) on a tight spread. Heavy attention, real fills.
- 1
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
PoliticsVol $2.3M · Liq $115.0K · spread 0.3¢20.1×
- 2
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
GeopoliticsVol $322.7K · Liq $53.4K · spread 1.0¢6.0×
- 3
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?
MacroVol $182.0K · Liq $50.0K · spread 1.0¢3.6×
- 4
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?
GeopoliticsVol $202.5K · Liq $56.7K · spread 0.1¢3.6×
- 5
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
SportsVol $869.5K · Liq $376.2K · spread 0.1¢2.3×
How to read this page
- Not trade calls. Receipts describe what happened, not what to do next. Action is always watch / verify / compare.
- Refreshed every 30 minutes from public Polymarket data. Once Orrery has a persistent snapshot store we'll add a
/receipts/[date]archive for week-by-week comparison. - Honest about misses. Disputed resolutions + signal stacks that didn't pay off get the same prime real estate as the wins.