What prediction markets just learned
A recurring digest of what moved on Polymarket — biggest probability swings, whale calls, signal-stacked candidates, disputed resolutions, and crowded markets. Public data, never trade calls. Refreshed every 30 minutes.
Biggest moves · 24h
5Largest probability swings on liquid live-research markets. Pinned-at-extreme markets are excluded — those are settlement queues, not fresh signal.
- 1
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?
UnclassifiedVol $192.2K · Liq $13.5K28¢
-26.0pp - 2
Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins
SportsVol $143.3K · Liq $56.3K28¢
-25.0pp - 3
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?
UnclassifiedVol $145.1K · Liq $20.3K14¢
-24.5pp - 4
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?
UnclassifiedVol $126.1K · Liq $25.0K57¢
-23.0pp - 5
Madrid Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskova
SportsVol $249.7K · Liq $164.8K86¢
+21.0pp
Top whale calls · last 24h
0Largest single trades by USD. Big size doesn't equal smart money — but it's where attention concentrates.
Quiet whale window. The feed picks up trades ≥ $25k.
Loudest signals
2Markets where momentum / flow / divergence stacked, ranked by signal confidence. Action is always 'watch' — never a trade call.
Most disputed resolutions
5Markets with active UMA dispute or pending oracle votes. Verify the source before treating moves as fresh information.
- 1
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
GeopoliticsUMA disputedVol $16.9M · expires Apr 210¢
- 2
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
MacroUMA proposedVol $11.6M · expires Apr 29100¢
- 3
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
MacroUMA proposedVol $11.2M · expires Apr 290¢
- 4
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
MacroUMA proposedVol $9.9M · expires Apr 290¢
- 5
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?
CultureUMA disputedVol $3.9M · expires Dec 3192¢
Most crowded markets
5Biggest turnover (24h volume / liquidity) on a tight spread. Heavy attention, real fills.
- 1
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
SportsVol $749.2K · Liq $61.8K · spread 1.0¢12.1×
- 2
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale?
UnclassifiedVol $175.0K · Liq $33.9K · spread 2.0¢5.2×
- 3
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?
UnclassifiedVol $126.1K · Liq $25.0K · spread 3.0¢5.0×
- 4
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
SportsVol $193.8K · Liq $41.4K · spread 1.0¢4.7×
- 5
Over $8M committed to the Printr public sale?
UnclassifiedVol $149.5K · Liq $35.9K · spread 0.7¢4.2×
How to read this page
- Not trade calls. Receipts describe what happened, not what to do next. Action is always watch / verify / compare.
- Refreshed every 30 minutes from public Polymarket data. Once Orrery has a persistent snapshot store we'll add a
/receipts/[date]archive for week-by-week comparison. - Honest about misses. Disputed resolutions + signal stacks that didn't pay off get the same prime real estate as the wins.