Spread: BC Dubai (-6.5)

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 51¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.5pp shift. Resolution depends on based on the final score including any overtime periods — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: based on the final score including any overtime periods.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 1.1h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.