Spread: Nicaragua (-1.5)

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 1¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.6pp shift. Resolution depends on official statistics — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: official statistics.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 6.6h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.