Will Joe Biden's disapproval rating be 40% or higher on May 19?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on to the most recent available disapproval rating — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the most recent available disapproval rating — https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.