Will Larry Thompson advance from the CA-32 primary election?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 79¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.5pp shift. Resolution depends on sos.ca.gov — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: sos.ca.gov — https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 23.5h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.