Will the 7-day COVID-19 case average in the UK be greater than 44,000 on November 8?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 0¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on the most recent 7-day moving average prior to november 8 — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the most recent 7-Day Moving Average prior to November 8 — https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.