Will the Conservative Party win between 38% and 41% of the vote in the 2025 Canadian election?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.5pp shift. Resolution depends on the popular vote share won by the conservative party — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the popular vote share won by the Conservative Party — https://www.elections.ca/home.aspx).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.