Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 5?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 2¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.5pp shift. Resolution depends on white house — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: White House — https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/calendar/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 26.6h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.