Will there be exactly 1 major space weather event this week?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 12¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 24.8pp shift. Resolution depends on to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater wh — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater wh — https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 25.7h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.