Will there be exactly 1 major space weather event this week?
Probability
11¢
1h
-1.1pp
24h
-27.1pp
24h Vol
$13.46
Liquidity
$252.00
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater whLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 30, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (19.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 27pp over 24h
Now 11¢; -1.1pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 28h. Spread is extremely wide.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 19.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 28 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater whLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 30, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (19.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 27.5h
- 20:27SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 28h. Spread is extremely wide.
Price movement
-27.1pp over the last 24h, now 11¢.
Biggest hourly move: -29.4pp at May 25, 12:00 UTC (to 21¢).
Show top 8 of 50 hourly moves
- May 27, 20:00 UTC · +20.3pp → 41¢
- May 27, 07:00 UTC · -21.6pp → 21¢
- May 27, 06:00 UTC · -20.2pp → 21¢
- May 27, 05:00 UTC · -21.6pp → 21¢
- May 25, 17:00 UTC · -21.0pp → 21¢
- May 25, 15:00 UTC · -22.5pp → 21¢
- May 25, 14:00 UTC · -24.4pp → 21¢
- May 25, 12:00 UTC · -29.4pp → 21¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between May 24, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will there be exactly 1 major space weather event this week?"?
As of Thu, 28 May 2026 20:27:24 GMT, YES is priced at 11% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -27.1pp in the last 24 hours, -1.1pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 30, 2026 (2026-05-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$13.46 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $42.28. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $252.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 19.8¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.