Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Republican Senate primary be 2,800,000 voters or greater?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.