Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 11¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.5pp shift. Resolution depends on to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data — https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.