Orrery Resolution Risk
Resolution path looks readable.
Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.
Market
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Probability
75¢
24h volume
$2.5K
Source path
US government
Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.
What to verify
- 01Expiry: Jul 31, 2026
- 02UMA status: not reported
- 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
- 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.