Orrery Resolution Risk

Source quality now matters more than price.

Resolving soon

Near expiry, small wording differences and source timing can dominate price action.

Market

Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at >$470 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 1 – Jun 5?

Resolves in 71h.

Probability

13¢

24h volume

$133.33

Source path

to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday)

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Jun 5, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Read the exact resolution rule before interpreting late moves.
  • 04Check event siblings for similar-but-not-identical contract wording.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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