Dependable-Mouser
0x00192f618230128ceba44f6c8e35e2f48d6a4352
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
64
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-387.27
Realised
$-41.25
Win rate
55%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 64- YES
Will Hades II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?
1283 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 11, 2025$0.00
$-7.80
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Eight Wars" at Rocky Mount events on Friday?
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Donkey Kong Bananza win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?
954 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 11, 2025$0.00
$-13.04
- YES
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?
847 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 11, 2025$0.00
$-22.50
- NO
Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times at Rocky Mount events on Friday?
739 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
375 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?
300 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-7.30
- YES
Will Kingdom Come: Deliverance II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?
207 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 11, 2025$0.00
$-2.29
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$1.33Feb 14, 16:03 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET$1.25Feb 6, 03:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET$1.00Feb 6, 03:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amazon say "Rufus" during earnings call?$1.00Feb 6, 03:20 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - February 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET$12.80Feb 5, 17:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - February 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET$21.08Feb 5, 17:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google say "DeepMind" or "Deep Mind" during earnings call?$16.00Feb 5, 01:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amazon say "Rufus" during earnings call?$4.95Feb 5, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google say "DeepMind" or "Deep Mind" during earnings call?$9.60Feb 4, 16:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon say "Rufus" during earnings call?$5.00Feb 4, 16:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google say "Youtube Shorts" during earnings call?$2.57Feb 4, 16:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google say "Youtube Shorts" during earnings call?$2.11Feb 4, 14:55 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$0.13Feb 4, 00:08 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET$0.17Feb 3, 23:01 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$2.26Feb 3, 22:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET$4.50Feb 3, 22:04 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET$21.36Feb 3, 21:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET$20.52Feb 3, 21:58 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - February 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$20.53Feb 3, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - February 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET$19.49Feb 3, 21:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
55% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $9.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 3, 16:50 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 14, 16:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.