Drafty-Derivative
0x0040b5e8e8058d4fb517495fd933f7d2bb450851
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-9.70
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Will Republicans have fewer than 200 seats in House after election?
1285 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-1.87
- YES
Will Susan Crawford win by 4-6%?
1010 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.01
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 19, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Kirk Cousins win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will there be less than 2 inches of snow in NYC in Jan?
192 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the HBO documentary identify Wei Dai as Satoshi?
71 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 15, 2024$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Republicans have 49 or fewer seats in Senate after election?
10 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-0.01
- YES
Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024?
5 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 29, 2024$0.00
$-0.01
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?$103.40Apr 14, 11:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP?$103.95Apr 14, 11:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Susan Crawford win by 4-6%?$1.01Apr 11, 13:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?$1.00Mar 18, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robert Habeck be the next Chancellor of Germany?$1.00Mar 4, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be less than 2 inches of snow in NYC in Jan?$1.00Feb 2, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kirk Cousins win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?$1.00Jan 14, 09:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting?$1.00Jan 14, 09:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Republicans have fewer than 200 seats in House after election?$1.87Nov 13, 09:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024?$0.01Nov 7, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Republicans have 49 or fewer seats in Senate after election?$0.01Nov 7, 11:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYHarrison vs. Vieira$0.30Oct 5, 07:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYPereira vs. Rountree Jr.$0.50Oct 5, 07:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the HBO documentary identify Wei Dai as Satoshi?$1.00Oct 5, 07:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 14
- Avg trade size
- $15.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 5, 07:00 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 14, 11:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.