Dull-Triangle
0x006c34a8630a786ba354db7435da6945ee68154e
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$21.62
Total PnL
$-502.14
Realised
$18.73
Win rate
39%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
32 shares @ 31.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$7.58
$-2.42
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 22?
17 shares @ 47.4¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$5.65
$-2.35
- YES
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
53 shares @ 3.8¢·now 5.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$2.63
$0.63
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 22?
14 shares @ 14.6¢·now 14.4¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$1.98
$-0.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 22?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$1.07
$0.07
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 22?
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 5.9¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.97
$-0.03
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
11 shares @ 55.5¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.92
$-5.08
- YES
Iran invades Kuwait by July 31?
56 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.47
$-0.53
- YES
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
11 shares @ 9.0¢·now 1.7¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.18
$-0.82
- YES
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.09
$-0.91
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 22?$1.05Jul 21, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 22?$1.04Jul 21, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 22?$1.05Jul 21, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran invades Kuwait by August 31?$2.00Jul 21, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran invades Kuwait by July 31?$1.00Jul 21, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on July 22?$1.04Jul 21, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 22?$7.25Jul 21, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 22?$1.19Jul 21, 15:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 22?$1.05Jul 21, 15:01 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down on July 21?$11.90Jul 21, 15:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 21?$2.70Jul 21, 03:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 21?$1.05Jul 21, 02:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 21?$1.05Jul 20, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 21?$1.04Jul 20, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 21?$5.17Jul 20, 16:04 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$3.25Jul 20, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$1.04Jul 20, 15:14 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET$1.35Jul 20, 15:14 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down on July 20?$20.23Jul 20, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$1.03Jul 20, 15:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
39% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $3.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 15:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 20:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.