Wilted-Defense
0x00816accec71a24c18475ba18e86199e553c947b
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
55
Open notional
$31.15
Total PnL
$-3.6K
Realised
$363.83
Win rate
45%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 55- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19?
70 shares @ 55.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$31.15
$-7.35
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C or higher on January 8?
2606 shares @ 63.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.6K
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on January 8?
1897 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 8, 2026$0.00
$-42.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C or higher on May 26?
1311 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-14.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 8?
1213 shares @ 16.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 8, 2026$0.00
$-201.22
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 17?
1020 shares @ 44.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-451.32
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C or higher on May 27?
733 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-16.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 27?
681 shares @ 16.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-110.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 27?
534 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-17.48
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 8?
500 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-26.60
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19?$11.69Jun 19, 07:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19?$18.38Jun 19, 07:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19?$26.80Jun 19, 07:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19?$3.50Jun 19, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19?$21.25Jun 19, 07:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18?$49.96Jun 18, 23:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18?$18.06Jun 18, 10:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18?$30.94Jun 18, 10:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18?$8.40Jun 18, 08:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18?$30.80Jun 18, 08:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18?$11.80Jun 18, 06:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18?$2.94Jun 18, 06:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18?$4.60Jun 18, 06:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18?$1.15Jun 18, 06:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18?$1.38Jun 18, 06:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18?$2.44Jun 18, 06:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18?$1.43Jun 18, 06:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18?$25.56Jun 18, 06:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17?$180.14Jun 17, 23:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17?$69.99Jun 17, 23:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
45% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $15.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 17, 11:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 19, 07:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.