Stale-Shanty-Request
0x008295e8552f0b1ce109457f815928141b4ac023
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
54
Open notional
$62.86
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$-60.79
Win rate
0%
32 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 54- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 19?
20 shares @ 57.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$10.50
$-0.90
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 19?
20 shares @ 64.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$10.30
$-2.50
- NO
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 18?
10 shares @ 72.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$9.13
$2.21
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on August 18?
7 shares @ 57.0¢·now 99.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$6.83
$2.90
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 18?
20 shares @ 48.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$6.30
$-3.30
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 18?
5 shares @ 61.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$5.00
$1.95
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 18?
4 shares @ 74.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$3.95
$1.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 19?
6 shares @ 50.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$3.66
$0.78
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on August 19?
5 shares @ 64.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$3.08
$-0.13
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 18?
5 shares @ 61.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$2.42
$-0.63
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on August 19?$3.20Aug 18, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 19?$12.80Aug 18, 07:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 18?$9.60Aug 18, 06:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 19?$1.44Aug 18, 06:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 19?$2.88Aug 18, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 19?$11.40Aug 18, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 18?$13.00Aug 17, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 18?$6.92Aug 17, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 18?$2.95Aug 17, 17:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on August 18?$7.81Aug 17, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on August 18?$3.94Aug 17, 17:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 18?$3.05Aug 17, 16:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 18?$3.05Aug 17, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 18?$3.97Aug 17, 15:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on August 16?$6.69Aug 16, 22:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 16?$2.22Aug 16, 22:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on August 16?$20.00Aug 16, 16:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 16?$5.00Aug 16, 15:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 15?$20.00Aug 16, 08:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on August 15?$1.28Aug 16, 06:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
60/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 32 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
32 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $6.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 14, 15:57 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 08:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 32 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.