0x00b57046e429f05c07d29a9ba09b90d8399aa03a
0x00b57046e429f05c07d29a9ba09b90d8399aa03a
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
137
Open notional
$88.21
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$-15.96
Win rate
25%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 137- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
14 shares @ 70.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$13.57
$4.06
- YES
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
10 shares @ 72.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.10
$2.83
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
7 shares @ 56.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$7.18
$3.12
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
7 shares @ 45.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$6.56
$3.61
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
6 shares @ 49.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$6.03
$3.07
- CHARLES OLIVEIRA
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)
6 shares @ 36.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$5.56
$3.56
- YES
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15?
5 shares @ 72.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$5.49
$1.49
- NO
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
5 shares @ 46.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$4.58
$2.44
- YES
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?
4 shares @ 92.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$4.32
$0.32
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
4 shares @ 50.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.58
$1.58
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$2.00Mar 9, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$2.00Mar 9, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?$2.00Mar 8, 17:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)$2.00Mar 8, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$2.00Mar 6, 18:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15?$2.00Mar 6, 02:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$2.00Mar 5, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$2.00Mar 5, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$2.00Mar 5, 19:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$2.00Mar 5, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$2.00Mar 5, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?$2.00Mar 5, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$1.27Mar 5, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15?$2.00Mar 5, 13:53 UTC
- TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$1.92Mar 5, 05:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$2.00Mar 5, 05:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 7?$2.00Mar 5, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$2.00Mar 5, 05:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?$2.00Mar 4, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$2.00Mar 4, 16:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $2.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 23, 23:00 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 9, 19:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.