0x00fccea2bd84516b72c0061efbb2a14905c1ba02
0x00fccea2bd84516b72c0061efbb2a14905c1ba02
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$28.91
Total PnL
$-1.09
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will fewer than 180 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 10-August 16?
6 shares @ 51.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$4.09
$1.09
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
4 shares @ 77.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$3.89
$0.89
- YES
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on August 17?
5 shares @ 62.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$3.85
$0.85
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?
4 shares @ 78.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$3.63
$0.63
- NO
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in July?
4 shares @ 70.0¢·now 69.0¢·exp Aug 26, 2026$2.96
$-0.04
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
4 shares @ 71.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$2.94
$-0.06
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?
6 shares @ 54.0¢·now 52.0¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$2.89
$-0.11
- NO
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?
6 shares @ 47.0¢·now 38.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$2.43
$-0.57
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
4 shares @ 74.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$1.72
$-1.28
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
12 shares @ 26.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.52
$-2.48
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?$3.08Aug 17, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on August 17?$3.05Aug 16, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?$3.04Aug 16, 12:08 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$0.00Aug 16, 07:52 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?$3.90Aug 16, 07:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?$3.07Aug 16, 03:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?$3.04Aug 15, 18:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?$3.75Aug 15, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?$3.03Aug 15, 09:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of August 10 2026?$8.11Aug 15, 04:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?$3.11Aug 15, 00:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Crazy" during remarks in New York?$0.00Aug 14, 22:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?$13.64Aug 14, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 180 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 10-August 16?$3.00Aug 13, 15:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?$0.00Aug 13, 10:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Crazy" during remarks in New York?$3.08Aug 13, 07:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in July?$3.04Aug 12, 23:30 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$0.00Aug 12, 19:50 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$3.95Aug 12, 19:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation be 3.4% in July?$6.82Aug 12, 19:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $3.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 3, 16:23 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 05:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.