Lost-Picket
0x0114670d28a6cca4a72789c6194143f08020f0b9
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
62
Open notional
$402.50
Total PnL
$-43.53
Realised
$0.06
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 62- YES
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
67 shares @ 73.0¢·now 51.6¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$34.57
$-14.34
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 2?
20 shares @ 80.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$15.30
$-0.70
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 2?
20 shares @ 73.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$13.90
$-0.70
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 2?
20 shares @ 80.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$13.90
$-2.10
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 2?
20 shares @ 62.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$13.70
$1.30
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on August 2?
17 shares @ 74.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$12.15
$-0.34
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 2?
20 shares @ 84.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$12.10
$-4.70
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on August 2?
20 shares @ 55.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$10.90
$-0.10
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 2?
13 shares @ 85.0¢·now 84.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$10.86
$-0.13
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 1?
20 shares @ 49.0¢·now 53.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$10.60
$0.80
Recent activity
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 1?$20.00Jul 31, 18:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 1?$7.80Jul 31, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 2?$0.42Jul 31, 17:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 2?$2.24Jul 31, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 2?$4.36Jul 31, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 1?$13.60Jul 31, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on August 1?$6.60Jul 31, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 1?$1.50Jul 31, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on August 2?$3.35Jul 31, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 2?$1.44Jul 31, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 2?$3.99Jul 31, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on August 1?$9.00Jul 31, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on August 1?$4.86Jul 31, 16:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 1?$0.28Jul 31, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 1?$11.00Jul 31, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 2?$0.37Jul 31, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 2?$0.24Jul 31, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 2?$1.16Jul 31, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 2?$2.39Jul 31, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 1?$3.80Jul 31, 16:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $5.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 16:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 18:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.