Complex-Gaffe
0x0122265a3864ba8e8b8c41b42d409be4a6f1159c
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$251.77
Total PnL
$-1.8K
Realised
$-93.10
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
676 shares @ 29.6¢·now 37.3¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$251.66
$51.66
- NO
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?
56 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.2¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.11
$-1.89
- YES
Will Russia capture Yablunivka before July?
1697 shares @ 32.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-550.00
- YES
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30?
1121 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2025$0.00
$-303.00
- NO
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?
1022 shares @ 16.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-166.00
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
886 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?
857 shares @ 17.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-150.00
- YES
Will PAS win by less than 4% of the vote?
832 shares @ 23.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 28, 2025$0.00
$-192.00
- NO
U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Friday?
538 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-21.00
- YES
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary election by 10-15%?
389 shares @ 51.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?$100.00Jun 11, 01:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?$100.00Jun 10, 12:31 UTC
- TRADESELLSpread: Belgium (-2.5)$141.90Jun 9, 19:39 UTC
- TRADESELLSpread: Belgium (-1.5)$119.78Jun 9, 19:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Belgium win on 2026-06-09?$112.25Jun 9, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Belgium win on 2026-06-09?$9.03Jun 8, 01:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Belgium win on 2026-06-09?$90.32Jun 8, 01:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Belgium (-2.5)$9.04Jun 8, 01:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Belgium (-2.5)$90.84Jun 8, 01:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Belgium (-1.5)$100.50Jun 8, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?$2.08Jun 7, 17:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kenya win on 2026-06-03?$2.47May 31, 15:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kyrgyz Republic vs. Kenya end in a draw?$124.18May 31, 15:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kyrgyz Republic win on 2026-06-03?$17.14May 31, 14:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kyrgyz Republic vs. Kenya end in a draw?$30.79May 31, 12:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kyrgyz Republic vs. Kenya end in a draw?$199.18May 31, 12:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kyrgyz Republic vs. Kenya end in a draw?$15.38May 31, 12:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kyrgyz Republic vs. Kenya end in a draw?$102.55May 31, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kenya win on 2026-06-03?$27.61May 31, 11:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kyrgyz Republic win on 2026-06-03?$27.77May 31, 11:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $79.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 20, 01:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 11, 01:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.