Wallet digest

active

Activity score

46/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-379.95

Realised

$0.00

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 13

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
586 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026
$0.00
$-99.50
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
356 shares @ 30.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026
$0.00
$-108.25
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
103 shares @ 27.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026
$0.00
$-28.37
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET
87 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026
$0.00
$-21.81
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET
83 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026
$0.00
$-19.83
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7AM ET
65 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026
$0.00
$-17.67
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
65 shares @ 45.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026
$0.00
$-29.54
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET
65 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026
$0.00
$-26.60
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
29 shares @ 44.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026
$0.00
$-12.80
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
17 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026
$0.00
$-4.51

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$6.97Jun 28, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$72.42Jun 27, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$26.05Jun 26, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.96Jun 10, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.07Jun 8, 00:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$2.79May 24, 01:00 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.80May 24, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.34May 22, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$54.12May 21, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$6.15May 20, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$36.46May 19, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$13.84May 18, 00:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$4.74May 7, 08:55 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.81May 7, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$5.88May 6, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.44May 5, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$14.76Apr 28, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.65Apr 27, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$15.19Apr 25, 00:30 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$46.00Apr 24, 00:30 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

pass

12 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity28 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence0 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry54 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk49 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 12
Avg trade size: $11.43
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Mar 17, 18:52 UTC
Last active: Jun 28, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 0 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 05:31:58 UTC·src:Polymarket Data