Wallet digest

active

Activity score

33/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

136

Open notional

$1.22

Total PnL

$-373.65

Realised

$-13.88

Win rate

134 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 136

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET
1 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2026
$1.22
$0.22
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
YES
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in July?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET
181 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET
53 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET$1.05Aug 22, 16:20 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$1.15Aug 22, 16:20 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET$2.29Aug 22, 16:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$1.02Aug 22, 16:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$1.02Aug 21, 23:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET$1.01Aug 21, 07:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET$1.01Aug 21, 07:48 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET$1.03Aug 21, 07:48 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET$1.01Aug 21, 03:42 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET$1.02Aug 21, 03:42 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET$1.01Aug 20, 22:44 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET$1.01Aug 20, 22:22 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$1.05Aug 20, 22:20 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET$1.08Aug 20, 22:20 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$1.22Aug 20, 22:20 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET$1.27Aug 20, 22:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$1.02Aug 20, 21:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET$1.01Aug 19, 23:21 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$1.01Aug 19, 23:18 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$1.04Aug 19, 23:14 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

56/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 134 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

134 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity66 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry51 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk47 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 26
Avg trade size: $1.02
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 18, 00:08 UTC
Last active: Aug 22, 16:20 UTC
Win rate sample: 134 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 18:38:59 UTC·src:Polymarket Data