Violet-Penny
0x015adff4cf7e5ecdc3e6457da7a5cc46adaf99d0
Wallet digest
Activity score
36/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-11.6K
Realised
$-3.4K
Win rate
14%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11?
4434 shares @ 28.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2025$0.00
$-1.3K
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6?
2098 shares @ 12.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2025$0.00
$-271.19
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET
1193 shares @ 49.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-592.72
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7AM ET
944 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2025$0.00
$-491.37
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 10PM ET
790 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2025$0.00
$-402.90
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3000 on July 13 at 5PM ET?
700 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2025$0.00
$-182.11
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 6, 1AM ET
662 shares @ 53.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2025$0.00
$-351.57
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2800 on July 13 at 5PM ET?
641 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2025$0.00
$-24.35
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2800 and $2900 on July 13 at 5PM ET?
639 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2025$0.00
$-115.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $103K and $104K on June 21 at 5PM ET?
588 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2025$0.00
$-300.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$21.38Jul 11, 09:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$26.93Jul 11, 09:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$33.77Jul 11, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$37.23Jul 11, 08:49 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$65.00Jul 11, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$34.16Jul 11, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$33.64Jul 11, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$34.16Jul 11, 08:29 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$34.53Jul 11, 08:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$39.00Jul 11, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$8.96Jul 11, 08:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$1.00Jul 11, 08:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$1.00Jul 11, 08:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$7.08Jul 11, 08:09 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$35.09Jul 11, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$20.57Jul 11, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$20.60Jul 11, 08:00 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$13.08Jul 4, 00:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET$19.61Jul 3, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$10.00Jul 3, 15:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
14% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $13.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 14:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 11, 09:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.