Wallet digest

active

Activity score

38/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$3.08

Total PnL

$-286.12

Realised

$-137.05

Win rate

28 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 28

OVER
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 5.5
3 shares @ 51.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026
$3.08
$1.49
MAGIC
Spread: Pistons (-8.5)
82 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026
$0.00
$-42.53
LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Angels
41 shares @ 46.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026
$0.00
$-19.42
KIWOOM DRX
LoL: KT Rolster vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
24 shares @ 32.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026
$0.00
$-7.88
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
23 shares @ 50.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 27, 2026
$0.00
$-11.39
TAMPA BAY RAYS
Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays
19 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 27, 2026
$0.00
$-10.49
KIWOOM DRX
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5)
16 shares @ 45.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026
$0.00
$-7.33
NO
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21?
12 shares @ 52.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026
$0.00
$-6.28
UNDER
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5
11 shares @ 48.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026
$0.00
$-5.10
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
9 shares @ 42.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026
$0.00
$-4.03

Recent activity

TRADEBUYLoL: Shifters vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Regular Season$1.50Apr 24, 14:02 UTC
TRADEBUYGame Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Shifters (+1.5)$1.50Apr 24, 14:00 UTC
REDEEMLoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana$2.47Apr 24, 13:51 UTC
TRADEBUYLoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2$1.50Apr 24, 06:21 UTC
REDEEMCavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5$2.90Apr 24, 06:00 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Pistons (-8.5)$1.50Apr 22, 23:48 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Inter Miami CF win on 2026-04-22?$1.50Apr 22, 23:47 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Pistons (-9.5)$1.50Apr 22, 23:47 UTC
TRADEBUYMagic vs. Pistons$1.50Apr 22, 23:47 UTC
TRADEBUYAtlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals$1.50Apr 22, 23:47 UTC
TRADEBUYAtlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals$1.50Apr 22, 23:47 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Pistons (-8.5)$1.50Apr 22, 23:46 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Pistons (-8.5)$1.50Apr 22, 23:46 UTC
REDEEMAtalanta BC vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5$11.16Apr 22, 23:46 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Pistons (-8.5)$1.50Apr 22, 22:51 UTC
TRADEBUYPenguins vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5$1.50Apr 22, 22:51 UTC
REDEEMSpread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)$3.43Apr 22, 22:51 UTC
TRADEBUYCavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5$1.50Apr 22, 07:04 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Pistons (-8.5)$1.50Apr 22, 07:03 UTC
TRADEBUYLoL: KT Rolster vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2$1.50Apr 22, 07:02 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

61/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

4% win rate over 28 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

28 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence93 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry100 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk48 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 43
Avg trade size: $1.50
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Apr 22, 06:02 UTC
Last active: Apr 24, 14:02 UTC
Win rate sample: 28 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 18:43:18 UTC·src:Polymarket Data