Carefree-Bonfire
0x016d93c11b499429d60f15527de197604e0e12ba
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$386.26
Total PnL
$-2.3K
Realised
$-8.52
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
386 shares @ 47.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$386.26
$204.72
- YES
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals?
4693 shares @ 12.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2025$0.00
$-605.00
- YES
Will Republicans have 55 seats in Senate after election?
2378 shares @ 10.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-250.00
- YES
Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?
1403 shares @ 35.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-500.00
- YES
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
1192 shares @ 14.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-170.00
- YES
Will a Republican win Nevada US Senate Election?
827 shares @ 30.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-249.78
- YES
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?
594 shares @ 16.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
592 shares @ 29.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-175.00
- YES
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
490 shares @ 40.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- YES
Will Napoli win on 2025-09-28?
217 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 28, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?$181.54Jan 12, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$200.00Jan 8, 12:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?$100.00Jan 8, 12:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?$378.91Nov 6, 18:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$20.00Nov 4, 00:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?$100.00Nov 4, 00:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?$50.00Oct 29, 17:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?$270.27Oct 29, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?$50.00Oct 29, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$50.00Oct 29, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?$75.00Oct 22, 23:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$46.12Oct 22, 23:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?$131.02Sep 28, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?$132.00Sep 28, 18:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$100.00Sep 28, 18:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$100.00Sep 28, 18:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?$100.00Sep 28, 18:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AC Milan win on 2025-09-28?$100.00Sep 28, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Napoli win on 2025-09-28?$50.00Sep 28, 18:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill courts block Trump's 100k H1b by September 30?$582.23Sep 25, 18:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $150.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 6, 14:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 12, 13:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.