Polite-Weird
0x0183ffe2896d7255f0c29d8e62fc5f98edf45442
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
46
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-125.94
Realised
$21.55
Win rate
73%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 46- NO
Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET
92 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-12.00
- UP
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET
72 shares @ 12.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- YES
Will Manchild (Sabrina Carpenter) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
60 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.01
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?
50 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET
44 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-12.00
- YES
Will Lola Young win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
30 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET
26 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-16.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET$1.04Jun 30, 22:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET$12.73Jun 21, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET$12.61Jun 21, 11:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$12.34Jun 21, 11:12 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$19.87Jun 21, 11:11 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$19.06Jun 21, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$12.45Jun 21, 11:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$12.31Jun 21, 11:07 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$14.70Jun 21, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$12.50Jun 21, 11:05 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET$23.03Jun 21, 11:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET$12.05Jun 21, 11:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$12.00Jun 21, 10:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$15.65Jun 21, 10:58 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down on June 21?$15.72Jun 21, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$16.41Jun 21, 10:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET$1.07Jun 21, 10:48 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET$17.47Jun 21, 10:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET$12.13Jun 21, 10:45 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET$6.65Jun 21, 10:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
73% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $10.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 03:44 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 30, 22:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.