Wallet digest

active

Activity score

25/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.4K

Realised

$-693.32

Win rate

10 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 12

YES
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-02-11?
664 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026
$0.00
$-92.92
NO
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-11?
476 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026
$0.00
$-190.40
YES
Will Preston North End FC win on 2026-02-14?
214 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026
$0.00
$-126.24
NO
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-07?
149 shares @ 85.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2026
$0.00
$-127.53
NO
Will St Mirren FC win on 2026-02-03?
83 shares @ 57.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026
$0.00
$-47.44
NO
Will Panathinaikós AO vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň end in a draw?
78 shares @ 60.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 19, 2026
$0.00
$-47.31
OVER
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5
73 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-40.00
YES
Will PEC Zwolle win on 2026-02-07?
50 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2026
$0.00
$-30.88
PORTUGAL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)
38 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
NO
Will Instituto AC Córdoba vs. CA Lanús end in a draw?
29 shares @ 75.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026
$0.00
$-21.62

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$2.10Jul 2, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.19Jun 30, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$5.20Jun 28, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.95Jun 27, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$39.56Jun 26, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$37.22Jun 25, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$8.98Jun 24, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$8.19Jun 23, 14:57 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.35Jun 21, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.88Jun 20, 00:37 UTC
REDEEMUzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score$71.43Jun 18, 04:21 UTC
REDEEMGhana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners$85.11Jun 18, 01:16 UTC
REDEEMWill England win on 2026-06-17?$34.48Jun 17, 22:31 UTC
TRADEBUYUzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score$30.52Jun 17, 20:10 UTC
TRADEBUYGhana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners$40.64Jun 17, 19:57 UTC
TRADESELLEngland vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5$18.98Jun 17, 19:43 UTC
TRADEBUYPortugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5$20.27Jun 17, 16:35 UTC
TRADEBUYSpread: Portugal (-1.5)$20.29Jun 17, 16:34 UTC
TRADEBUYPortugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5$20.27Jun 17, 16:04 UTC
TRADEBUYEngland vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5$20.28Jun 17, 16:03 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

38/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 10 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

8 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity51 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence33 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry75 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk41 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 8
Avg trade size: $23.94
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Mar 5, 01:38 UTC
Last active: Jul 2, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 10 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 05:36:08 UTC·src:Polymarket Data