Competent-Dead
0x01a92cb2264adc6ff3d9dbaaad8d38d5170933f6
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$871.91
Total PnL
$-738.16
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
5269 shares @ 11.2¢·now 12.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$658.65
$68.86
- YES
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?
7229 shares @ 2.9¢·now 2.9¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$213.26
$5.70
- NO
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31?
7662 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-231.72
- NO
Will Paul Biya win the Cameroon Presidential Election?
2006 shares @ 15.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 5, 2025$0.00
$-317.15
- YES
Macron out in 2025?
1678 shares @ 10.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-174.19
- NO
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?
525 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-73.47
- NO
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?
81 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 13, 2025$0.00
$-16.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?$209.34Jul 15, 17:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?$1.60Jul 13, 00:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?$3.18Jul 12, 06:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?$1.28Jul 12, 06:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?$318.46May 13, 11:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?$0.00Mar 26, 19:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?$0.00Mar 26, 19:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?$19.02Mar 20, 10:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election?$19.02Mar 20, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election?$27.78Mar 6, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?$118.72Feb 28, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election?$33.04Feb 12, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election?$19.10Feb 4, 19:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?$20.00Feb 4, 19:07 UTC
- TRADESELLMacron out by June 30, 2026?$30.69Feb 4, 19:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?$39.57Jan 31, 10:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election?$15.76Jan 31, 10:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?$80.00Jan 31, 10:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election?$0.28Jan 30, 12:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sophia Chikirou win the Paris mayor election?$30.96Jan 22, 15:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $52.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 6, 17:39 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 17:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.