0x01d4996348b5f828315ee356749e5645b4c647d4
0x01d4996348b5f828315ee356749e5645b4c647d4
Wallet digest
Activity score
20/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
61
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-802.84
Realised
$-400.56
Win rate
0%
60 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 61- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 10?
236 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 4?
220 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on March 10?
179 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 5?
143 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 5?
143 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 5?
122 shares @ 8.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 9?
115 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 10?
107 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 5?
100 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 10?
96 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET$1.29Mar 24, 22:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET$1.00Mar 24, 22:04 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET$0.00Mar 24, 17:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - March 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET$5.00Mar 24, 16:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 15?$0.00Mar 24, 16:48 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - March 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$0.00Mar 24, 16:48 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - March 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$0.00Mar 24, 16:48 UTC
- REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - March 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$0.00Mar 24, 16:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 20?$0.00Mar 24, 16:48 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$0.00Mar 24, 16:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 21?$0.00Mar 24, 16:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 20?$0.00Mar 24, 16:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 10?$0.00Mar 24, 16:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 6?$0.00Mar 24, 16:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 10?$0.00Mar 24, 16:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be 46°F or higher on March 9?$0.00Mar 24, 16:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 11?$0.00Mar 24, 16:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 9?$0.00Mar 24, 16:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 6?$0.00Mar 24, 16:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 6?$0.00Mar 24, 16:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 60 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
2 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
60 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $3.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 24, 16:46 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 24, 22:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 60 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.