Well-Informed-Anarchy-Historian
0x01fb0a0426b9913f4a259a427d45d967d99155ed
Wallet digest
Activity score
44/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
100
Open notional
$22.51
Total PnL
$-471.12
Realised
$-14.07
Win rate
1%
91 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 100- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
17 shares @ 93.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.29
$0.26
- YES
Will it rain in Dallas, TX on August 19?
11 shares @ 72.0¢·now 45.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$4.87
$-2.83
- YES
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
49 shares @ 2.1¢·now 1.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.96
$-0.07
- YES
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 1.1¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.23
$-0.77
- YES
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?
5 shares @ 22.1¢·now 3.1¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.15
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 1?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 11?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 6?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 29?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 37°C or higher on July 29?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill it rain in Dallas, TX on August 19?$7.81Aug 20, 03:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 19?$0.27Aug 19, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 19?$1.28Aug 19, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 19?$0.21Aug 19, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Celtic FC vs. LASK Linz end in a draw?$8.11Aug 19, 19:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 18?$10.69Aug 19, 07:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on August 19?$7.41Aug 19, 07:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 19?$0.02Aug 19, 01:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 19?$0.33Aug 19, 01:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 19?$0.08Aug 19, 01:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 18?$7.81Aug 18, 17:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on August 13?$62.03Aug 14, 03:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on August 13?$60.82Aug 14, 01:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 13?$0.58Aug 13, 04:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on August 12?$40.32Aug 12, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 15?$12.07Aug 12, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on August 12?$36.96Aug 12, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 11?$2.30Aug 11, 13:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 11?$1.05Aug 11, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 10?$1.05Aug 10, 02:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 91 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
91 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $5.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 20:02 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 03:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 91 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.