Knowing-Glass
0x020d49579beb4827adcce87a7f00d474fb201a87
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-6.6K
Realised
$-1.1K
Win rate
40%
62 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
48581 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-101.68
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
500 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-17.86
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
500 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
500 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-14.08
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
500 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-6.74
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
500 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-14.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
500 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-8.50
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?
500 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-14.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET
400 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 13, 2025$0.00
$-188.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
200 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-5.20
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$5.77Jul 6, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET$3.10Jul 6, 06:24 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$7.55Jul 6, 05:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$4.13Jul 6, 05:28 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$1.32Jul 6, 05:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET$3.12Jul 6, 05:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET$2.07Jul 6, 05:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET$1.04Jul 6, 04:46 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET$3.53Jul 6, 03:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET$2.07Jul 6, 03:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET$1.12Jul 6, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET$1.01Jul 6, 03:33 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$3.23Jul 5, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$2.05Jul 5, 20:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$1.03Jul 5, 20:09 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$7.98Jul 5, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$4.05Jul 5, 19:53 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET$3.85Jul 5, 19:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET$2.07Jul 5, 19:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET$1.85Jul 5, 19:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
68/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 62 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
62 closed markets, 40% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $2.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 12:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 6, 06:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 62 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.