Wallet digest

active

Activity score

62/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

134

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.4K

Realised

$-159.67

Win rate

81%

53 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 134

UP
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET
464 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 27, 2026
$0.00
$-4.64
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
362 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026
$0.00
$-29.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET
317 shares @ 63.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET
217 shares @ 73.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-160.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET
208 shares @ 76.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-160.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET
146 shares @ 68.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET
138 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-51.16
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$1.01Jul 13, 13:28 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$0.96Jul 13, 12:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$1.04Jul 13, 12:05 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$1.15Jul 13, 12:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$1.01Jul 13, 12:04 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$1.04Jul 13, 12:04 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$1.01Jul 13, 12:04 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$0.88Jul 13, 12:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$2.07Jul 13, 12:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$2.11Jul 13, 11:59 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$2.25Jul 13, 11:59 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$2.05Jul 13, 11:58 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$1.96Jul 13, 11:56 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$2.09Jul 13, 11:55 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$2.18Jul 13, 11:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$2.01Jul 13, 11:53 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$2.32Jul 13, 11:52 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$2.07Jul 13, 11:50 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET$1.25Jul 13, 11:49 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET$3.10Jul 13, 11:49 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

62/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

81% win rate over 53 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

53 closed markets, 81% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity54 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry53 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk25 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 49
Avg trade size: $3.86
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 12, 21:04 UTC
Last active: Jul 13, 13:28 UTC
Win rate sample: 53 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 00:54:57 UTC·src:Polymarket Data