Wallet digest

active

Activity score

47/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

190

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-2.8K

Realised

$63.85

Win rate

43%

30 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 190

NO
Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on March 27?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DARK PASSAGE
LoL: Dark Passage vs Team Phoenix - Game 2 Winner
1010 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026
$0.00
$-18.50
THUNDERTALK GAMING
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Team WE (BO3)
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
INVICTUS GAMING
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner
750 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026
$0.00
$-35.00
NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on March 27?
646 shares @ 28.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026
$0.00
$-183.52
WEIBO GAMING
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Weibo Gaming - Game 2 Winner
606 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026
$0.00
$-39.98
WEIBO GAMING
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winner
600 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026
$0.00
$-60.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
333 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026
$0.00
$-10.07
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
300 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026
$0.00
$-6.00
NO
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
250 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026
$0.00
$-37.50

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET$31.76Jun 19, 11:31 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET$52.97Jun 19, 11:29 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET$40.72Jun 19, 11:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$13.62Jun 19, 11:06 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET$3.09Jun 19, 11:04 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET$22.61Jun 19, 11:01 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$2.62Jun 19, 10:23 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$18.69Jun 19, 10:21 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$28.57Jun 19, 10:17 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET$6.33Jun 19, 10:10 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$0.00Jun 19, 10:08 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$33.04Jun 19, 10:07 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$43.40Jun 19, 10:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$19.80Jun 19, 10:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET$9.40Jun 19, 10:03 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$0.00Jun 19, 10:00 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$39.29Jun 19, 09:55 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$23.76Jun 19, 09:54 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$53.60Jun 19, 09:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET$34.81Jun 19, 09:51 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

58/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

43% win rate over 30 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

30 closed markets, 43% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry37 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk32 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 44
Avg trade size: $34.69
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Mar 27, 06:21 UTC
Last active: Jun 19, 11:31 UTC
Win rate sample: 30 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 20:20:10 UTC·src:Polymarket Data