Embellished-Alpha
0x021e98de64dd9e1c070d78285ec5e7af508a984e
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
23
Open notional
$4.1K
Total PnL
$-2.9K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- YES
US military action against Iran before July?
2661 shares @ 37.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$2.7K
$1.7K
- NO
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?
742 shares @ 67.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$741.64
$241.64
- NO
Netanyahu out by 2025?
238 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$238.10
$38.10
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
236 shares @ 84.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$236.41
$36.41
- NO
Iran Nuke in 2025?
230 shares @ 87.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$229.88
$29.89
- YES
Will Scott Seiver win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?
12000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-12.00
- YES
Will Phil Galfond win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?
12000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-12.00
- YES
Will Jason Koon win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?
11847 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-11.99
- YES
Will Brian Rast win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?
11000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Will Andrew Robl win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?
11000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-11.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Phil Galfond win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?$12.00Aug 7, 23:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brian Rast win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?$11.00Aug 7, 23:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Scott Seiver win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?$12.00Aug 7, 23:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Garrett Adelstein win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?$11.00Aug 7, 23:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andrew Robl win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?$11.00Aug 7, 23:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jason Koon win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?$12.00Aug 7, 23:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYJerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?$900.00Jul 19, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nikita Bier be the next CEO of X?$20.00Jul 15, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nikita Bier be the next CEO of X?$20.00Jul 15, 13:24 UTC
- TRADESELLIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium before August?$958.05Jul 15, 13:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium before August?$800.00Jun 23, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYFordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?$600.00Jun 23, 11:37 UTC
- TRADESELLPacers vs. Thunder$19.42Jun 23, 02:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYPacers vs. Thunder$200.00Jun 22, 22:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?$1.3KJun 22, 22:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US officially declare war on Iran before July?$120.00Jun 22, 00:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?$500.00Jun 22, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS military action against Iran before July?$1000.00Jun 20, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026?$300.00Jun 15, 12:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026?$300.00Jun 15, 12:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $648.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 12, 22:33 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 7, 23:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".