Ringed-Poncho
0x023dc46a5c66e09af548fa376a15f534c8e83431
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
58
Open notional
$3.79
Total PnL
$-322.22
Realised
$-5.28
Win rate
36%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 58- YES
Will Utah Archers be named the 2026 Premier League Lacrosse Champion?
8 shares @ 39.0¢·now 24.4¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$2.00
$-1.20
- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-34 House seat?
20 shares @ 12.7¢·now 4.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.86
$-1.68
- YES
Will Mathilde Panot advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
15 shares @ 42.6¢·now 3.3¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$0.49
$-5.88
- YES
Will New York Atlas be named the 2026 Premier League Lacrosse Champion?
5 shares @ 39.0¢·now 5.9¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$0.30
$-1.65
- YES
Will Juan Soto hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
5 shares @ 48.0¢·now 2.7¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$0.14
$-2.26
- YES
Will Carlos Moore win the 2026 GA-13 special election?
20 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.01
$-9.39
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?
185 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-40.81
- NO
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
180 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-32.40
- NO
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?
134 shares @ 7.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-9.85
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill four or more people dissent the July Fed decision?$0.19Jul 25, 03:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill four or more people dissent the July Fed decision?$0.27Jul 23, 03:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill four or more people dissent the July Fed decision?$0.27Jul 23, 03:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill four or more people dissent the July Fed decision?$0.27Jul 23, 03:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill HEROIC make a roster change before August?$1.21Jul 22, 16:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?$2.31Jul 22, 16:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cameron Boozer win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?$4.23Jul 22, 16:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?$1.15Jul 22, 16:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Philadelphia Waterdogs be named the 2026 Premier League Lacrosse Champion?$1.53Jul 22, 16:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Andy Eads win the 2026 Denton County Judge election?$1.73Jul 22, 16:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 0–1 of these AIPAC endorsees lose their primaries?$1.44Jul 22, 16:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Davis Bryant finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Corales Puntacana Championship?$5.00Jul 19, 21:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nito Abreu win the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?$1.11Jul 18, 15:28 UTC
- TRADESELLGemini 4.0 released by July 31, 2026?$1.61Jul 18, 03:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tyler, The Creator have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?$1.53Jul 17, 14:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tyler, The Creator have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?$0.29Jul 17, 14:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tyler, The Creator have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?$0.86Jul 17, 14:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tyler, The Creator have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?$0.91Jul 17, 13:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tyler, The Creator have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?$38.90Jul 17, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tyler, The Creator have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?$46.23Jul 16, 18:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
36% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $3.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 15:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 03:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.