Well-Worn-Pigeon
0x025fe40994656cd156c5fedba10eb1bd24968a2e
Wallet digest
Activity score
34/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$5.13
Total PnL
$-102.28
Realised
$-2.30
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $82.5B by July 31?
2 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.60
$0.00
- NO
Will Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $77.5B by July 31?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.40
$0.00
- NO
Will Neuralink have the highest private market valuation on July 31?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.10
$0.00
- NO
Will OpenAI have the highest private market valuation on July 31?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.02
$0.00
- NO
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?
447 shares @ 11.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-51.00
- YES
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
408 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.31
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March?
254 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-9.14
- NO
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
133 shares @ 25.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-34.54
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the highest private market valuation on July 31?$1.02Aug 1, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Neuralink have the highest private market valuation on July 31?$1.10Aug 1, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $77.5B by July 31?$1.40Aug 1, 00:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $82.5B by July 31?$1.60Aug 1, 00:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$101.75Jul 19, 02:53 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:27 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 7, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 2, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$99.08Jul 1, 03:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.12Jun 30, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.60Jun 30, 19:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Sweden win Eurovision 2026?$104.25Jun 30, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sweden win Eurovision 2026?$103.06May 13, 05:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament?$102.96May 13, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament?$101.00Apr 9, 04:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
11 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 11
- Avg trade size
- $34.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 20, 06:38 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 00:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.