Wallet digest

active

Activity score

29/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.2K

Realised

$-1.24

Win rate

19 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 27

UP
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 12PM ET
1452 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 22, 2025
$0.00
$-726.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 9AM ET
722 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 22, 2025
$0.00
$-361.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - August 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
60 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026
$0.00
$-30.20
UNDER
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5
15 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026
$0.00
$-6.16
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
13 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-6.07
UNDER
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5
12 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$0.00
$-5.41
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights
12 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026
$0.00
$-5.69
SPURS
Spread: Spurs (-13.5)
12 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026
$0.00
$-2.90
UNDER
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5
12 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026
$0.00
$-5.40
BRITISH COLUMBIA LIONS
Calgary Stampeders vs. British Columbia Lions
12 shares @ 56.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026
$0.00
$-6.72

Recent activity

TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$8.68Aug 4, 06:29 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$1.50Aug 4, 06:28 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$20.03Aug 4, 06:28 UTC
REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - August 2, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$31.38Aug 2, 16:00 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - August 2, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$16.24Aug 2, 03:13 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$2.62Jul 29, 03:40 UTC
REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - July 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$5.21Jul 26, 16:01 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 26, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET$2.70Jul 26, 01:10 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$2.79Jul 16, 05:30 UTC
TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners$1.64Jul 13, 01:12 UTC
TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners$0.27Jul 13, 01:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:10 UTC
TRADESELLWill Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$89.88Jul 3, 05:55 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:11 UTC
TRADEBUYJacquet vs. Bublik: Match O/U 38.5$3.10Jul 2, 02:58 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 2, 00:16 UTC
TRADEBUYTsitsipas vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 38.5$1.25Jul 1, 02:55 UTC
TRADEBUYTsitsipas vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 38.5$1.85Jul 1, 02:48 UTC
YIELD$0.01Jul 1, 00:16 UTC
REDEEMWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners$12.20Jun 30, 02:02 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

51/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 19 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity36 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence63 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry85 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk37 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 26
Avg trade size: $7.36
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 17, 02:22 UTC
Last active: Aug 4, 06:29 UTC
Win rate sample: 19 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 17:00:46 UTC·src:Polymarket Data