0x029c16716249f1572174d33dd12ad6242eff5137
0x029c16716249f1572174d33dd12ad6242eff5137
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
23
Open notional
$29.87
Total PnL
$-28.99
Realised
$-16.41
Win rate
43%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- NO
Will Amy Madigan (Weapons) win Best Supporting Actress – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?
4 shares @ 45.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$3.64
$2.00
- NO
Will APT (Rosé and Bruno Mars) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
4 shares @ 96.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$3.58
$0.13
- NO
Penguin listed on Binance by March 31?
4 shares @ 72.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$3.57
$1.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on January 19?
3 shares @ 66.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$2.99
$1.00
- NO
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
3 shares @ 63.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.56
$0.94
- NO
Will Amanda Edwards win TX-18 Special Election?
3 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$2.50
$0.55
- NO
Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?
2 shares @ 86.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$2.41
$0.33
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on January 17?
2 shares @ 51.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$2.34
$1.14
- NO
Will there be 9-11 inches of snow in D.C. this weekend?
2 shares @ 83.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$1.95
$0.33
- NO
Base FDV above $12B one day after launch?
1 shares @ 72.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$1.18
$0.15
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Gold (GC) settle at $4,725-$4,850 in January?$0.00Mar 2, 03:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on January 19?$0.00Mar 2, 03:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the February Meeting?$0.00Mar 2, 03:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill APT (Rosé and Bruno Mars) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?$0.00Mar 2, 03:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amy Madigan (Weapons) win Best Supporting Actress – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?$0.00Mar 2, 03:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump's approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on January 23, 2026?$0.00Mar 2, 03:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on January 24?$0.00Mar 2, 03:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill End of Beginning - Djo be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?$0.00Mar 2, 03:05 UTC
- REDEEMTrump approval Up or Down this week?$0.00Mar 2, 03:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?$0.01Mar 2, 03:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of February 2026?$0.00Mar 2, 03:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?$0.00Mar 2, 03:04 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - January 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET$0.02Mar 2, 03:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?$0.02Mar 2, 03:04 UTC
- REDEEMAnother 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?$0.02Mar 2, 03:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 17?$0.00Mar 2, 03:04 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down on January 5?$0.00Mar 2, 03:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill "People We Meet on Vacation" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (January 20, 2026)$0.00Mar 2, 03:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on January 14?$0.00Mar 2, 03:04 UTC
- REDEEMOver $22M committed to the Space public sale?$0.31Mar 2, 03:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
48/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 2, 03:00 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 2, 03:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.