Finished-Hurt
0x02b6bc4f22fe74202794be043e2176e506a3e113
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$51.53
Total PnL
$-70.84
Realised
$-0.79
Win rate
4%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 13?
3 shares @ 72.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$2.78
$0.78
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 13?
3 shares @ 66.9¢·now 92.5¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$2.77
$0.77
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on August 13?
5 shares @ 72.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$2.33
$-1.27
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on August 14?
3 shares @ 67.8¢·now 76.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$2.26
$0.26
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on August 13?
2 shares @ 52.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$1.92
$0.92
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on August 15?
3 shares @ 68.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$1.66
$-0.34
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 13?
2 shares @ 64.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$1.56
$0.56
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on August 13?
2 shares @ 64.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$1.56
$0.56
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on August 13?
2 shares @ 64.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$1.56
$0.56
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 13?
2 shares @ 60.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$1.51
$0.51
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on August 15?$1.02Aug 13, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on August 15?$1.01Aug 13, 06:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 15?$1.01Aug 13, 06:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 15?$1.02Aug 13, 06:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on August 15?$1.01Aug 13, 06:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 15?$1.02Aug 13, 06:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 15?$1.02Aug 13, 05:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on August 15?$1.01Aug 13, 05:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 14?$1.01Aug 13, 03:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 14?$1.01Aug 13, 03:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on August 14?$1.01Aug 13, 03:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on August 12?$1.35Aug 13, 03:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on August 12?$1.49Aug 13, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 14?$1.01Aug 13, 01:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 12?$1.49Aug 12, 22:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 12?$1.36Aug 12, 22:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on August 12?$1.38Aug 12, 21:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on August 12?$1.51Aug 12, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on August 14?$1.01Aug 12, 19:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 12?$1.42Aug 12, 16:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
4% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 12, 05:22 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 13, 06:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.