Wallet digest

active

Activity score

40/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.2K

Realised

$-274.41

Win rate

28%

197 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
35 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026
$0.00
$-3.50
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
27 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026
$0.00
$-3.50
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET
26 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET
25 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026
$0.00
$-3.80
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET
25 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-3.50
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET
22 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026
$0.00
$-3.50
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET
22 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026
$0.00
$-3.50
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET
18 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026
$0.00
$-3.50
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET
18 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026
$0.00
$-3.50

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$0.00Aug 17, 11:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$3.60Aug 17, 11:41 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$0.00Aug 17, 11:41 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET$0.00Aug 17, 11:37 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$3.64Aug 17, 11:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET$3.69Aug 17, 11:31 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET$0.00Aug 17, 11:30 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET$4.02Aug 17, 11:22 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET$3.72Aug 17, 11:21 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET$3.53Aug 17, 11:16 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$0.00Aug 17, 11:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET$3.58Aug 17, 11:11 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$4.67Aug 17, 11:11 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET$5.00Aug 17, 11:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$3.56Aug 17, 11:06 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$0.00Aug 17, 11:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET$3.57Aug 17, 11:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$3.70Aug 17, 10:56 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET$0.00Aug 15, 14:47 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$11.29Aug 15, 14:41 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

67/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

28% win rate over 197 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

197 closed markets, 28% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity65 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry85 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk25 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 24
Avg trade size: $3.66
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 11, 15:52 UTC
Last active: Aug 17, 11:46 UTC
Win rate sample: 197 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 15:29:41 UTC·src:Polymarket Data