Virtual-Cygnet
0x0370f4e292f7ed2493e2e8b2a746d838a5ce48d3
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
43
Open notional
$11.24
Total PnL
$-387.88
Realised
$128.56
Win rate
80%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 43- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
29 shares @ 35.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.29
$-2.71
- YES
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?
2 shares @ 5.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$1.78
$1.69
- YES
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?
1 shares @ 66.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.01
$0.34
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
1 shares @ 81.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.94
$0.13
- YES
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
50 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.23
$-0.97
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
1100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 21?
336 shares @ 5.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-19.36
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 21?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
231 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 19?
207 shares @ 10.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 19, 2026$0.00
$-21.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 14?$6.73Jul 15, 08:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 14?$83.21Jul 15, 08:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 13?$23.16Jul 14, 07:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 14?$5.06Jul 14, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 14?$80.15Jul 14, 06:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 14?$5.19Jul 14, 06:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 14?$0.81Jul 14, 06:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 14?$5.18Jul 14, 05:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 12?$305.70Jul 13, 14:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 12?$5.27Jul 13, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 13?$20.14Jul 13, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 12?$100.24Jul 12, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 12?$100.32Jul 12, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 12?$10.07Jul 12, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 12?$5.23Jul 12, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 12?$10.08Jul 12, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 12?$5.23Jul 12, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 12?$10.11Jul 12, 07:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 12?$10.35Jul 12, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 12?$5.18Jul 12, 07:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $28.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 08:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 08:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.