Wallet profile

Numb-Luncheonette

0x03864969d446a41976dd96b805287106c2ea2b1a

activity 24/100

Wallet digest

active

Activity score

24/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-3.3K

Realised

$-343.02

Win rate

0%

23 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

Recent activity

  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.11Jun 30, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$2.21Jun 20, 00:37 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.21Jun 1, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.52May 31, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$3.97May 29, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.62May 27, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.05May 26, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.37May 24, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.11May 23, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.90May 22, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$2.68May 21, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.75May 19, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.30May 15, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.76May 8, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$3.93May 6, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.44May 4, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.15May 3, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.54May 2, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.38May 1, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.02Apr 30, 05:30 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

43/100
read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 23 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
pass

7 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.

Resolved-only track record
review

23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity23 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence77 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry8 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk39 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
7
Avg trade size
$10.90
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Apr 2, 17:54 UTC
Last active
Jun 30, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample
23 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 03:16:11 UTC·src:Polymarket Data