Sophisticated-Exit
0x03a267f8209691ca7f1a66df65effcefe450dc06
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$561.99
Total PnL
$-15.58
Realised
$18.22
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
177 shares @ 84.8¢·now 88.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$156.60
$6.50
- NO
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
153 shares @ 78.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$132.46
$13.06
- YES
Will another artist be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026?
60 shares @ 62.5¢·now 55.5¢·exp Apr 1, 2027$33.52
$-4.21
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
36 shares @ 77.4¢·now 78.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$27.95
$0.40
- YES
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
214 shares @ 10.0¢·now 11.7¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$25.09
$3.61
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?
27 shares @ 84.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.88
$-0.14
- NO
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
82 shares @ 36.5¢·now 25.4¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$20.92
$-9.08
- NO
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?
24 shares @ 83.5¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.99
$-0.01
- YES
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
19 shares @ 85.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$16.73
$0.48
- NO
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
17 shares @ 87.5¢·now 85.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.70
$-0.30
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$32.78Jul 21, 22:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?$32.78Jul 21, 22:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$4.63Jul 21, 22:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$5.22Jul 21, 22:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$9.85Jul 21, 22:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?$6.30Jul 19, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?$5.22Jul 19, 21:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?$10.07Jul 19, 21:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?$9.57Jul 19, 21:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$10.04Jul 19, 21:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$22.06Jul 19, 21:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$29.87Jul 18, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$30.95Jul 18, 21:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$60.82Jul 18, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$12.82Jul 18, 06:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?$12.82Jul 18, 05:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$3.10Jul 17, 03:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$7.00Jul 17, 03:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$4.80Jul 17, 03:31 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump out as President before GTA VI?$4.78Jul 17, 03:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $15.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 04:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 22:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.