Amused-Mercury
0x03a48d794ac3f133f49e7d6f167b7cb6ebbd3e32
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
198
Open notional
$141.37
Total PnL
$-19.83
Realised
$34.37
Win rate
52%
137 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 198- NO
Will GTE launch a token by December 31, 2027?
14 shares @ 17.5¢·now 66.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$9.42
$6.93
- YES
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $435 end of July?
5 shares @ 9.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.00
$4.55
- NO
Will GTE launch a token by September 30, 2027?
10 shares @ 24.0¢·now 48.0¢·exp Oct 1, 2027$4.99
$2.50
- NO
Evo Morales arrested by July 31?
5 shares @ 58.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.76
$2.00
- NO
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2027?
8 shares @ 45.6¢·now 61.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$4.66
$1.20
- NO
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by July 31?
4 shares @ 57.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.95
$1.69
- NO
Will Micron (MU) finish week of June 29 above $1,150?
4 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$3.62
$1.81
- NO
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 17, 2026?
4 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$3.57
$0.39
- YES
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 29 above $560?
4 shares @ 58.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$3.56
$1.50
- YES
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of July?
3 shares @ 71.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.45
$1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2027?$3.39Aug 9, 21:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80?$1.62Aug 9, 17:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70?$1.21Aug 9, 17:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70?$0.46Aug 9, 01:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70?$0.64Aug 9, 01:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80?$1.00Aug 7, 12:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80?$0.23Aug 6, 23:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80?$0.64Aug 6, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70?$0.54Aug 6, 23:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70?$0.61Aug 6, 23:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70?$0.73Aug 6, 23:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70?$0.64Aug 6, 23:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70?$0.61Aug 6, 23:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80?$1.28Aug 6, 21:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Florida (Special) have the closest Senate race in 2026?$0.14Aug 5, 23:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80?$0.69Jul 31, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80?$0.52Jul 31, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80?$0.31Jul 31, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80?$0.38Jul 31, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80?$0.64Jul 30, 22:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
52% win rate over 137 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.
137 closed markets, 52% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 12:53 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 9, 21:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 137 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.