Amused-Mercury
0x03a48d794ac3f133f49e7d6f167b7cb6ebbd3e32
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
79
Open notional
$141.11
Total PnL
$21.46
Realised
$12.69
Win rate
73%
26 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 79- NO
Will the Compendium 2026 be Released Before the Start of EWC
16 shares @ 11.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$8.45
$6.74
- YES
Will Florian Wirtz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
15 shares @ 13.0¢·now 39.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$5.69
$3.80
- NO
Wimbledon 2026: Top-10 Seed to Lose in First Round? (Men’s Singles)
9 shares @ 45.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$5.45
$1.53
- YES
Iran successfully targets shipping on July 3?
78 shares @ 6.4¢·now 6.5¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$5.03
$0.04
- YES
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on July 3?
9 shares @ 51.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$4.91
$0.48
- NO
Will Nous Research launch a token by December 31, 2027?
8 shares @ 56.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$4.50
$0.12
- NO
Will Prime Intellect launch a token by September 30, 2027?
7 shares @ 75.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Oct 1, 2027$4.26
$-0.73
- NO
Romanian PM Bolojan out by July 31?
11 shares @ 39.8¢·now 36.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.05
$-0.36
- YES
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by July 31?
7 shares @ 61.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.95
$-0.10
- NO
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2027?
9 shares @ 33.0¢·now 41.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$3.82
$0.75
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2027?$3.08Jun 29, 01:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$0.30Jun 29, 01:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$0.90Jun 29, 01:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?$0.43Jun 29, 01:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple (AAPL) close above $230 end of July?$0.15Jun 29, 01:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple (AAPL) close above $230 end of July?$0.26Jun 29, 01:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple (AAPL) close above $220 end of July?$0.42Jun 29, 01:11 UTC
- TRADESELLIran successfully targets shipping on July 4?$2.49Jun 29, 01:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWimbledon 2026: Top-10 Seed to Lose in First Round? (Men’s Singles)$3.92Jun 29, 00:54 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.90Jun 29, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLEpstein client list released by July 31?$0.08Jun 29, 00:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping on July 4?$1.00Jun 29, 00:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping on July 4?$1.96Jun 29, 00:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYEpstein client list released by July 31?$0.37Jun 29, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Papertrade launch a token by September 30, 2027?$0.08Jun 29, 00:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Waymo launch in Tampa, FL by December 31 2026?$1.39Jun 29, 00:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fuse launch a token by March 31, 2027?$1.17Jun 28, 23:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fuse launch a token by March 31, 2027?$0.88Jun 28, 23:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Papertrade launch a token by September 30, 2027?$0.36Jun 28, 23:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?$3.83Jun 28, 23:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
73% win rate over 26 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 28, 22:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 29, 01:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 26 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.